Basic
68
14k
resolved Jan 13
Resolved
N/A

After the main market closes, I plan to attempt to solve the challenge if nobody else has found either a 50% or 100% solution. Currently I do not want to bias the market with my own attempts, since it's an experiment to see how well crowdsourcing problems like these works.

Resolves YES if I find a solution meeting either the 50% or 100% criteria. NO otherwise. N/A if somebody else finds either solution or if I decide not to attempt a solution.

Market's closing time will be extended to the time I decide to start working on it, closed, and then resolved approximately a week later.

I will not take a net-NO position on this market(or will immediately sell out if I accidentally do), though I can buy and sell YES.

Main market:

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
predicted YES

Resolving NA since the main market is now guaranteed to get at least a 50% resolution.

predicted YES

@traders This market is written to resolve NA if we get a 50% resolution in the main market. @EmilyThomas 's existing solution likely qualifies(though still needs testing). I won't change the NA here, but I've created a new market /MiraBot/will-mira-produce-a-yesqualifying-s and put the last of my money on YES @ 1%.

I feel like it seems very likely with all the progress that hasn’t been made, if the last push isn’t successful, that Mira will be able to get it done

predicted NO

@JoshuaB "After the main market closes, I plan to attempt to solve the challenge if nobody else has found either a 50% or 100% solution.". To the best of my knowledge, this market is going to resolve N/A as at a minimum, we have a fifty percent solution.

predicted NO

@JoshuaB I was very silly to have bet this down though, given that.

predicted YES

@RobertCousineau Solution hasn't been validated yet. It might fail extended testing, they might give up on trying, and the year ends without a 50%-qualifying solution. So NO is still possible.

predicted NO

@Mira agreed it is still possible. Just unlikely (as the linked market shows).

@Mira "they might give up on trying"
Never.
95% or bust

I think with 32k it's possible, but it would cost hundreds of dollars to come up with something so people can't really be bothered