Let's do it again!
After a blowout July with $387M bet, mostly on the election, Polymarket had an even bigger August, with $461M bet and one more day to go.
All data curtesy of Richard Chen's Polymarket Dune dashboard.
https://dune.com/rchen8/polymarket
Also notable are the daily numbers.
July experience bigger peak days than August -- especially on rumors of Biden dropping out. But August had higher mean and media trading. Also the number of active traders has steadily went up.
So... will we maintain the current trend, see a bit of regression, of will Polymarket have another breakout month and approach or possibly exceed $600M of monthly betting?
Weekly % of money bet on elections has actually gone down a bit. About 80% of the dollars but only 65% of the users are betting on elections. So the non-election part of Polymarket is growing. Including sports, and non-election political markets like outcomes for court cases for Elon in Brazil, and Pavel Durov in France...
Resolution is simple. We go by Richard Chen's Dune dashboard.
Since there was at least one stickler who complained, please don't bet this market if you have a problem with resolution one day early when the outcome is certain.
We are at $318M after 18 days. That's ~$18M per day on average -- median a bit lower.
To hit $600M for the month we'll need a bit over $23M per day... a big increase but not out of the question.
One big day can change that math significantly. And we are generally trending upward in daily volume... but not enough to matter on this timescale.
I'd say betting on $600+ is a bet on some kind of big day anomaly. More likely we clear $500M and set a new monthly record but not by a big margin over last month....
Market seems to have this priced correctly.
@Bayesian yeah it's definitely possible that we will "just barely" clear $450
it should perhaps be higher... but I think in reality this is very unlikely
just taking the rate so far gets us to 530-550 as midpoint projection -- and 318 of that is locked in so market cratering to get under 450 is actually a pretty steep fall
could be if something happens in the market... or say they turn off incentives somehow
furthermore active traders, number of accounts... all is growing... growing slower than overall volume but Polymarket is very much still trending up
I'd be quite surprised or expect a big event to get us below last month tbh -- but if it's "just barely over" -- yeah I can see it
@Bayesian yes we did
also at the beginning of the month we were doing under $15M per day hence I bet heavily on lower bound -- then quickly covered my position
at this point we'd need ~$11M daily to get under 450 -- that would mean we average the lower bound of days over the past month...
I can see this being close but $318 is already locked in
@Moscow25 your limit oder is fine but I have other ~4% returns I can get on my mana -- for example the O1 LMSys market by October 1st
both are markets I see as close to 100% -- unless something surprising happens
in other words, I'd bet them gladly laying 90% odds but pull back around 95%
math changes in a week obv
sorry for not offering you an awesome deal with no upside 🤷
@Bayesian if you're trying to increase variance, I'll definitely bet with you at 6-10% return though might need to sell some positions to get more Mana soon -- have got about 150K deployed... most of it waiting for resolution
We're at $282M half-way through the month. Matching last month's total of just above $450M seems quite likely, and we're not too far off pace to hit $600M though still seems like that would require some uptick in betting from the current pace.
The number of traders is rising faster than amount bet, indicating more smaller traders. Also the % bet on elections is steadily shrinking... assuming this is calculated correctly, it does indicate that Polymarket is building somewhat of a base in other markets, like sports and economics predictions.
https://dune.com/rchen8/polymarket
