On Friday afternoon, August 30th, a judge in Brazil declared the company to be in contempt of court, and declared that
Twitter / X should cease operations in Brazil immediately
any users accessing Twitter from Brazil by VPN will be subject to an $8000 fine (!)
https://deepnewz.com/brazil/brazil-blocks-elon-musk-s-x-after-supreme-court-judge-s-order
Elon is not taking this lying down. He is posting about the case and the judge, in Trumpian fashion.
When will this conflict be resolved?
When will Twitter / X resume somewhat normal operations in Brazil? [Subject to new rules, perhaps.]
We will add some dates now, but keep the options open if the case drags on.
If we add dates these will be later dates.
So bet on Other for "never resolved" or "resolved later."
A couple of points
for date of resolution we will use Brazil time (Brasilia, Rio)
all dates are inclusive -- so "back by October 1st" includes announcement of agreement on October 1st.
resolution will be by statement from either Brazil government or from Elon / official X sources
if a resolution to bring back X is reached, we will use the date of the resolution, not the date the X is back on -- provided that these are reasonably close together
in the most likely scenario when a resolution is reached, it will be announced and X will be back in Brazil within hours or possibly a day or two
rumors do not count
the announcement has to be official and clear, from at least one of the two sides -- Elon saying "we have reached an agreement and X will soon be back in Brazil" can count provided it is back soon after
if the service is resumed and no one says anything [impossible] the that also counts
if Elon decides to keep X turned off for Brazil... then there is no resolution
we aim to resolve this market in 2024 or early 2025 at the latest
Some people have been able to access X in Brazil since this morning but the Supreme Court and the National Telecommunications Agency have stated this is due to technical issues with X switching over to Cloudflare IPs, does not mean X has been allowed to keep running and they are still upholding the block.
https://oglobo-globo-com.translate.goog/politica/noticia/2024/09/18/acesso-ao-x-pode-ter-sido-causado-por-instabilidade-no-bloqueio-diz-stf.ghtml?_x_tr_sl=pt&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pt-BR&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Elon's companies paid a fine and had their bank accounts reinstated. cc @coproduct
This indicates a willingness to play ball and I think this will get resolved sooner than later.
https://deepnewz.com/brazil/brazil-lifts-block-on-starlink-x-accounts-after-3-31-million-fine-payment-to-de
@Moscow25 Hmm.... This does make me update a bit towards a sooner resolution, but Elon would still have to block a lot of accounts, including ones he has unblocked throughout this whole spat and assign a representative in Brazil. I think I'm still fairly certain this will stretch out until October.
@coproduct I don't think Elon will do everything they ask
but this show perhaps both sides are willing to negotiate and deal with things a bit rather than just villify the other
@Moscow25 remember that Xandao is not necessarily that popular among all Brazilians, and perhaps not that popular at all among more modern internet users
but we'll see
@Moscow25 "Elon's companies paid a fine"
This is incorrect. The money was forcefully taken from their already frozen accounts. It scales the game. I don't think X is coming back to Brazil.
@Moscow25 curious about what made you change your mind here.
@coproduct see the news today -- they are willing to play ball and to de-escalate to Xandao or at least give in to some of his demands...
@coproduct I don't see how I can resolve it
this is an "pick one option" market so it won't let you rule one out -- unless they added a sneaky option I'm not aware of
Maybe Xandao has BlueSky shares?
https://deepnewz.com/brazil/bluesky-gains-millions-users-after-brazil-supreme-court-bans-x
Brazilian Supreme Court will have five judge panel on the X case on Monday.
Could see some movement then
@coproduct yes they uphelp the block on X
though they reversed the $8000 fine for accessing X via VPN
https://deepnewz.com/brazil/brazil-s-supreme-court-halts-8900-day-vpn-fines-moraes-backs-down
@Moscow25 Sort of, actually
the fines have not been officially reversed, the Order of Lawyers of Brazil (OAB) is seeking the reversal but Moraes seems to be sticking to his guns https://www-infomoney-com-br.translate.goog/consumo/oab-contesta-decisao-de-moraes-sobre-multa-de-r-50-mil-por-vpn/?_x_tr_sl=pt&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pt-BR&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Luiz Fux, another one of the Supreme Court ministers, suggested the fines should only apply for people who use a VPN to post content that could be considered criminal according to Brazilian law but no action to that effect has been taken yet https://www-poder360-com-br.translate.goog/poder-justica/favoravel-a-barrar-o-x-fux-quer-liberar-para-quem-nao-comete-crime/?_x_tr_sl=pt&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pt-BR&_x_tr_pto=wapp
@coproduct right, thanks -- our story notes that "fines will still apply" if people use VPN to post stuff the court doesn't like
shocking to the American ear, really...
@Moscow25 The US is very much an outlier when it comes to valuing free speech over social stability.
A more cynical octopus might say that it's because you folks can afford to do so.
@coproduct My Brazilian friends donβt think that βBig Alexβ is banning X for societal stability tbh. They basically agree with Elon on this one
@Moscow25 your friends are probably right of center or at least libertarian-ish
I'm not saying I agree with XandΓ£o (how we'd say Big Alex in portuguese lol) either, just saying that Brazil is generally a less freedom-loving society - we've had centuries of patrimonialism to shape the country (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrimonialism)
@Moscow25 If you were to talk to more left-wing Brazilians their narrative is that XandΓ£o is defending national sovereignty from a foreign actor intent on destabilizing our politics
@coproduct yes of course everyone appeals to higher principles, when doing what is good for them (for other reasons) -- or bad for their enemies.
The discussion isn't that different in US on some level. Our intellectual class here is mostly left wing also -- even if some of them for some reason don't like to admit it.