Will an H5N1 mRNA vaccine be developed and enter "late stage" human trials (or wider release) by July 2025?
3
Ṁ269
2025
61%
chance

Moderna has announced government $176M in funding for an mRNA H5N1 Bird Flu vaccine.

Will this vaccine be developed, produced and in "late stage" human testing by July 2021, as the story suggests?
https://deepnewz.com/economics/moderna-secures-176-million-u-s-government-h5n1-bird-flu-vaccine-development

The market will resolve YES based on widespread media reports
* the vaccine has been produced

* it is mRNA based

* it is in "late stage" human trials -- meaning a substantial amount has been produced, and hundreds or thousands of people are in trials for efficacy, after initial "early stage" trials for safety are passed or waved

Also if the vaccine is rushed and becomes available under emergency authorization -- or any authorization -- that will count as YES as well.

The "late stage trials" need only be officially announced, not completed. Though the vaccine has to exist, even if not yet manufactured at scale.

It need not be Moderna... but it must be an mRNA vaccine.

Trials and vaccines in non-US countries count too, but will be viewed with more scrutiny.

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