I will note that there is little incentive to prove a case zero until there is an incipient epidemic.

Just one clarification not made yet, doesn't have to be USA, anywhere in the world counts?

Potentially, but not yet confirmed: 8 contacts of an index case had symptoms

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/health/bird-flu-cluster-missouri.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb

@Siebe 😐

@SaviorofPlant yeah I know, and health authorities are doing a really bad job with the data (which greatly affects this market)

I just hope that the fatality rate AND morbidity rate (think long covid) would actually be really low

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/h5n1-virus-in-latest-human-case-has-mutated-officials-say/

Please clarify the resolution criteria. Does this require sustained transmission? What's the closing date? Jan 1st 2026, Dec 31st 2026?

@Siebe There just needs to be one proven case of transmission between humans. Closes Jan 1.