Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026? | Manifold

Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/h5n1-virus-in-latest-human-case-has-mutated-officials-say/

Please clarify the resolution criteria. Does this require sustained transmission? What's the closing date? Jan 1st 2026, Dec 31st 2026?

@Siebe There just needs to be one proven case of transmission between humans. Closes Jan 1.

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