If they announce a change to contract such that only 5 will be launched but this is only announced in 2025 after question deadline, will this question resolve no? or does it stay closed until resolution only after all launches?

If they announce that in Dec 2024 then this question resolves yes as a violation of the contract for 6? or does there have to be cancellation of all future launches to cause a yes resolution?

If it's announced in 2025 this resolves No. If they announce in 2024 that they won't fulfill the entire 6 launches (even if they do 5) then this resolved Yes; it doesn't have to be a cancellation of all launches.

It does have to come from Starliner's side though. If NASA announces this year that they're cancelling the ISS in 2026 so they only need 3 Starliner launches, then that doesn't count. The market is about whether Starliner can live up to its promises in theory.

Should it be
the Boeing Starliner program will be curtailed? rather than terminated? to avoid confusion?

If NASA announces they are terminating contract as they consider that Starliner is not fit for purpose and Boeing don't say or do things (eg sue NASA) to contradict this then I think it should be a yes. So coming from Starliner side seems a bit odd?

Title changed.

Tbh I don't think it's costing NASA anything to keep the Starliner contract in place...

But I'm not sure how to capture the scenario where Starliner is just really slow and/or the ISS fails much sooner than expected

I made this market in response to discussions with Steve here: