Boeing is planning to send six Starliner flights to the ISS after its certification. If it completes all six flights, this market resolves No. If it's announced that it won't fly all six flights, this market resolves Yes.
If it's announced that it will be terminated only after completing all six ISS visits, that doesn't count as Yes — they could still change their mind after though so it's not an immediate No either.
The initial test/certification flights do not count for the total of six.
1,000
3.00According to https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/09/after-another-boeing-letdown-nasa-isnt-ready-to-buy-more-starliner-missions/ there is only a firm order for three missions:
NASA has only given Boeing the "Authority To Proceed" for three of its six potential operational Starliner missions. This milestone, known as ATP, is a decision point in contracting lingo where the customer—in this case, NASA—places a firm order for a deliverable. NASA has previously said it awards these task orders about two to three years prior to a mission's launch.
Josh Finch, a NASA spokesperson, told Ars that the agency hasn't made any decisions on whether to commit to any more operational Starliner missions from Boeing beyond the three already on the books.
Would this question resolve YES if they decide before 2025 to cancel it after these three missions? Apparently it would not really be a violation of the contract.
@dp9000 Huh, good question. I'm inclined to say Yes, as this market was made under the assumption that they had a contract for 6, and afaik everyone was basically assuming they'd do (at least) 6. Stopping at 3 would mean a significant failure of the Starliner program.
@Mqrius Yes, fine by me. Resolving it based on whether it is a violation of the contract would have been difficult anyway because we don't know the details of the contract.
If NASA defers to its fallback plan, flying on Dragon, it may spell the end of the Starliner program. During the development and testing of Starliner, the company has already lost $1.6 billion. Reflying a crew test flight mission, which likely would be necessary should Starliner return autonomously, would cost much more. Boeing might opt to cancel Starliner and leave NASA with just a single provider of crew transportation. That would be painful for both NASA and Boeing.
But the alternative—Starliner not coming home safely with the crew inside—is far, far worse. This is the risk-reward decision that Free, Stich, and other NASA officials ultimately must balance in the coming days.
If they announce a change to contract such that only 5 will be launched but this is only announced in 2025 after question deadline, will this question resolve no? or does it stay closed until resolution only after all launches?
If they announce that in Dec 2024 then this question resolves yes as a violation of the contract for 6? or does there have to be cancellation of all future launches to cause a yes resolution?
Should it be
the Boeing Starliner program will be curtailed? rather than terminated? to avoid confusion?
If NASA announces they are terminating contract as they consider that Starliner is not fit for purpose and Boeing don't say or do things (eg sue NASA) to contradict this then I think it should be a yes. So coming from Starliner side seems a bit odd?