https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-8-happen

Despite the explosion, Manifold predicts a 77% chance that they return to flight before April 1. That gives roughly nine months in which to do a docking test.

In that time, they'll need to

1. Be confident enough in Ship to put it into a true orbit

2. Use Ship as a spacecraft. Tested RCS system, batteries, possibly solar panels, and whatever sensors will be used for docking. Cold soaking, thermal cycling, orbital maneuvering, all that mess.

3. Successfully test ship-to-ship docking software and hardware

If docking is their next major milestone, nine months seems plausible for SpaceX, assuming they've already finished designing and building most of this (on a bench somewhere, if not flown already). A key assumption.

But landing a Ship almost certainly takes priority. Will they build, fly, and test the capabilities needed for docking while they're still expending each Ship? ...

Almost certainly yes. They are still in a fast-iteration mode, and would not refly an obsolete Ship anyways (unless maybe to prove to management & shareholders that they can).

So aside from premature explosions like flight 7, landing and docking should be able to go in parallel.

I think, 40-60% NO probability is about the right range, at least as things stand now. Coincidentally, that's also a 40-60% YES probability. ;)

@NGK has been eating all the No, he's got some nice limit orders up. I'd say he's negative but he did win last year's Starlink deploy market so maybe he's onto something :)

@Mqrius betting that "SpaceX will do it, but later than a bunch of space nerds think" is usually pretty safe.

I've been the over-optimistic space nerd more than a few times, and have the losses to show for it.

Why the sudden drop? (80% to 40%)

@BoydKane IFT7 second stage blew up

I'm actually so excited that this is truly actually gonna (80%) happen next year!