Will SpaceX's HLS uncrewed demo launch before 2026?
➕
Plus
20
Ṁ2135
2026
11%
chance
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ300 NO

New budget request puts it at 2026

predicts NO

I'm removing the part of the criteria that says "Release of the launch clamps after ignition counts as a launch."

Reason for this is that the launch clamps apparently open well before the launch, and Starship is basically freestanding for a while, and they can still scrub from that state. Launch will now be actual takeoff unless we find a better point to hinge the market on.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules