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Will SpaceX's HLS uncrewed demo launch before 2026?
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18
Ṁ1.6k2026
16%
chance
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1M
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Takeoff counts as a launch.
Currently scheduled for 2024 according to NASA's timeline.
/Sailfish/will-spacexs-hls-lander-launch-by-2
/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun
/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun-267f101c256c
See also:
Artemis 2 timeline: /Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026
Artemis 3 timeline: /Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again
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I'm removing the part of the criteria that says "Release of the launch clamps after ignition counts as a launch."
Reason for this is that the launch clamps apparently open well before the launch, and Starship is basically freestanding for a while, and they can still scrub from that state. Launch will now be actual takeoff unless we find a better point to hinge the market on.
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