This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.

I'm assuming that by "No" he meant there would be no attempt at a launch and by "Not successfully" he meant there would be a launch that did not reach orbit but not a successful launch.

If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.

See the full list of markets at https://manifold.markets/news/everyday-astronaut-2025-predictions

• Update 2025-03-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarification:

  • An unsuccessful attempt (e.g. Isar spectrum) eliminates the No attempt outcome.

  • The market will remain open if a later successful attempt occurs within the year.