Will SpaceX re-fly a Super Heavy Booster in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
Plus
17
Ṁ22542026
66%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.
If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.
See the full list of markets at https://manifold.markets/news/everyday-astronaut-2025-predictions
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
This market says 50% it first happens in 2025, https://manifold.markets/Multicore/which-of-ars-technicas-starship-tim says 40% it first happens in 1st half 2026, combined that implies <10% chance it hasn't been done by July 2026. Not sure I'm that confident.
Related questions
Related questions
How many times will SpaceX launch Starship in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
Will the SuperHeavy Booster fly without refurbishment by EOY 2026?
45% chance
When will SpaceX first reuse Superheavy (Starship 1st stage)?
Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2025?
63% chance
By when will SpaceX re-fly a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight
🚀 Will SpaceX Achieve 135 Successful Launches In 2025?
89% chance
Will SpaceX re-fly a Starship upper stage in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
18% chance
Will SpaceX successfully catch a Starship in 2025?
92% chance
How many times will SpaceX launch their Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
24% chance