When will SpaceX first reuse Superheavy (Starship 1st stage)?
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Plus
31
Ṁ6664
2026
1.6%
Before 2025-01-01
26%
Before 2025-04-01
47%
Before 2025-07-01
60%
Before 2025-10-01
73%
Before 2026-01-01
80%
Before 2026-04-01
89%
Before 2026-07-01
Resolved
NO
Before 2024-10-01

The market will resolve as soon as SpaceX manages to launch a Starship rocket, successfully land its first stage, aka Superheavy, and launch it for the second time. The second launch doesn't have to be fully successful, the market will resolve positively as long as the rocket leaves the pad.

I do not bet on my own questions.

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Sorry for the duplicate but thought people might like different milestones in one place for comparison.

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket

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