Will the a substantial portion (>25%) of civilians still participate in the US labor market in Jan. 2030?
Mini
5
Ṁ313
2030
93%
chance

This market resolves YES if the BLS reports that the civilian labor force participation rate is greater than 25 percent for January 2030. In the event that the BLS is dissolved and replaced with another agency but still reports this statistic, then I will resolve the market as YES.

This market resolves NO if the BLS reports that the civilian labor force participation rate is less than or equal to 25 percent for January 2030. It also resolves as NO if no human above 16 is alive in the United States. In the event that the civilian labor force participation rate is no longer reported by the US government, then this market also resolves as NO.

In the event that the parameters of the civilian labor force participation rate are changed (say a shift in the age range from 16 to 21, or the removal of the category of civilian) I will attempt to reconstruct the present measure of the civilian labor force participation rate using the CPS survey data the BLS uses. This will likely delay me from resolving the market until 2031 when such data becomes publicly available. If the CPS survey data will not become publicly available, then I will resolve this market as N/A.

I will not bet on this market.

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