Will US unemployment be 15% or more before 2030? | Manifold

Will US unemployment be 15% or more before 2030?

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"unemployment" refers to the monthly unemployment rate published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The highest ever recorded monthly US unemployment rate was in April 2020, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, at 14.7%.

See data from BLS or St Louis Fed below:

Will the United States have an unemployment rate of 15% or more in any month before the end of this decade?

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The BLS statistic referenced counts the percent of the "active workforce" unemployed.

I see two broad brush possibilities:

1) UBI comes into effect and some number of people now in the "acti ve workforce " drop out

2) economic collapse, at least in US

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