AI tools will cause mass casualties or $500mn harm before 2029 such as would have been covered under SB 1047.
Plus
12
Ṁ42332029
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Both the incident and the model causing the incident need to have been covered.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Conditional on California SB 1047 law, will an AI cause $500 million in damage by end of 2026?
Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives?
Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?
44% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029?
37% chance
If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?
48% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?
67% chance
Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030?
35% chance
Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2035?
13% chance
Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
30% chance
Will there be a botched AI takeover/attempted shutdown evasion killing >100 people before 2050?
29% chance