If no other big events happen and there is a big inter-community listening exercise, will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?
7
190Ṁ261Dec 31
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?
10% chance
Will Germany have a one-party or two-party government before 2030?
80% chance
The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.
55% chance
Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$1M/yr using a democratized mechanism before 2025?
30% chance
Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$10M/yr using a democratized mechanism before 2025?
14% chance
Will any other large AI organization have a big public leadership conflict before 2028?
68% chance
Will any states split themselves into smaller pieces by 2028?
16% chance
Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?
24% chance
Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2025?
85% chance
Will there be a high-profile power struggle at Anthropic before 2026?
13% chance