The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030. | Manifold

The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.

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Something we'd pay $10 million to avert.

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"Progressive" and "rationalist" aren't opposed. You might be thinking of —

progressive vs. libertarian
progressive vs. reactionary
progressives & libertarians vs. reactionaries & neofascists
rationalist vs. post-rationalist
rationalist vs. mysterian
something else

What exactly is meant by "progressive" in contrast to rationalist?

Who's "we"?

This needs much clearer resolution criteria. You can make the argument this has already happened.

Can you name any examples of a split you'd pay 10 million to avert?

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Will the EA Forum or LessWrong start using EigenKarma by 2025 (public experiments included)?

There will be significant bad blood within EA over disagreements about feminism before 2025

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in Q4 2025?

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Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?

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