If passed, will 2 or more AI orgs significantly shift their operations from California and give SB 1047 as the reason?
15
1kṀ2594
2029
12%
chance

AI
AI Safety
California
AI Regulation
California Politics
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will any large company leave California because of SB-1047? (2025)
Will California sign into law any more AI bills before July 2025?
18% chance
Conditional on California SB 1047 law, will an AI cause $500 million in damage by end of 2026?
If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?
72% chance
Will any large company leave California because of AI regulations? (2025)
Will California pass an AI Safety bill in 2025?
51% chance
Will California SB 1047 pass? | What will the highest Chatbot Arena elo of an open source model be at the start of 2026?
Will there be an AI ballot measure in California in 2026?
49% chance
Will Texas HB 1709 / TRAIGA (regulating AI) become law in 2025?
3% chance
If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?
48% chance
Sort by:

@NathanpmYoung I think this resolves N/A, since SB 1047 didn't pass.

bought Ṁ1,250 NO

This isn't happening. SB1047 doesn't care where your company is located. It applies to companies doing business in California.

What qualifies as an "AI org"? Do random small startups count?

(I don't think they should, but won't bet on this market without clarity on that)

People are also trading

Will any large company leave California because of SB-1047? (2025)
Will California sign into law any more AI bills before July 2025?
18% chance
Conditional on California SB 1047 law, will an AI cause $500 million in damage by end of 2026?
If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?
72% chance
Will any large company leave California because of AI regulations? (2025)
Will California pass an AI Safety bill in 2025?
51% chance
Will California SB 1047 pass? | What will the highest Chatbot Arena elo of an open source model be at the start of 2026?
Will there be an AI ballot measure in California in 2026?
49% chance
Will Texas HB 1709 / TRAIGA (regulating AI) become law in 2025?
3% chance
If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?
48% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules