Will California SB 1047 pass? | What will the highest Chatbot Arena elo of an open source model be at the start of 2026?
Plus
5
Ṁ75322025
5%
Yes | 1200 - 1300
5%
Yes | 1300 - 1400
5%
Yes | 1400 - 1500
17%
No | 1200 - 1300
21%
No | 1300 - 1400
14%
No | 1400 - 1500
13%
Chatbot Arena will no longer exist
22%
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will California SB 1047 pass? | What will the highest Chatbot Arena elo of an open source model be at the start of 2025?
Highest Chatbot Arena Elo rating of an open-source model during 2024
What will the highest elo of an open-source model on chatbot arena be at the end of 2024?
Which companies will outrank OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (>= week)
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? ( >= week)
Which companies will outrank or tie with OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (>= week)
Will there be a model with a 69%+ Chatbot Arena win rate against gpt-o1 before June 1st, 2025?
62% chance
Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at any point in 2024? (resolves based on ELO rating)
7% chance
Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena)
21% chance