Ukraine warcasting megamarket

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2026

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Will Trump be in power 2026 Jan 1st?

69%

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2026 (lasts for at least 1 year)

68%

Will Putin be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

43%

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2025 (lasts for at least 1 year)

30%

>5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2026

24%

Will Zelensky be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

15%

Will a successful coup happen in Russia before the peace is established?

13%

Will a successful coup happen in Ukraine before the peace is established?

11%

Nuclear weapon launch aimed in such a way that it causes fewer than 10 civilian deaths (eg stratosphere, battlefield, over ocean) before 2030 by Russia

Russian nuke which causes more than 10 civilian deaths, by 2030

Resolved

YES

Will Zelensky be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

Resolved

YES

Will Putin be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Ukraine

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@mods Can you please resolve the Jan 1st sub questions?

At least some of these sort of call for market extension.

@NathanpmYoung Can be resolved.

@NathanpmYoung what's the conditions for this?

@MalachiteEagle What are the things you think are ambiguous?

@NathanpmYoung who is considered a credible source for this question? Reputable news organisations?

@MalachiteEagle Yes. Thank you for asking.

@NathanpmYoung which do you consider reputable?

Shameless plug:

bought Ṁ50 YES

If aimed at a testing site, will likely cause less than 10 civilian deaths.

bought Ṁ500 NO

This is EOY 2024 right?

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