Which of these potentially world-changing discoveries will happen first?
➕
Plus
71
Ṁ3482
2030
15%
AGI
11%
Fusion energy
1.1%
Room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor
5%
Cure for cancer
14%
High-fidelity brain-computer interface
0.2%
FTL travel
16%
Extraterrestrial life
0.5%
Universal virus vaccine
6%
Full-brain emulation
6%
Nanotechnology
25%
Good vegan cheese

Resolves to my judgement. Happy April Fool's but this is a very serious market. Nothing melts like real cheese melts.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Does convincing you vegan cheese is inherently better (health, environment, ethics, etc.) than real cheese suffice?

I'm afraid not. I'm already vegan and convinced that vegan cheese is better along certain dimensions like the ones you mentioned, but not along dimensions like taste or texture. Even if it's 'better', it still sucks.

Good vegan cheese

@NcyRocks Which brands have you tried so far? There's a reasonable chance it already exists but you haven't tried it yet

The main one I've tried is a New Zealand brand called Angel Food.

Does Vemondo exist in New Zealand? That's the main one I've tried and like

I recommend going to Tart Bakery in Grey Lynn and talking to them about cheese while eating everything. surely if anyone can give advice on this it's them.

Good vegan cheese
bought Ṁ10 Good vegan cheese YES

Betting yes on this out of hopium

AGI
bought Ṁ20 AGI NO

I know that having this in my portfolio is a losing endeavor given Manifold's obsession with it. But lol, this is not in any sense the most likely.

Nanotechnology

Yeah, that was one of the least thought-out options. I had in mind something more like more general manufacturing on a nano scale.

(Apologies for making these so vague, but I did say "resolves to my judgement" on April Fool's Day!)

@GazDownright You realize you're betting against good vegan cheese right?!

@DavidFWatson There's nothing like real cheese. I trust @NcyRocks' tastebuds 👊

opened a Ṁ40 Cure for cancer YES at 15% order

Have you considered how much bad vegan cheese you might have to eat for this market?

Hey, I have to eat it anyway. May as well try to find out when it'll stop sucking quite so much.

Cure for cancer

a cure for any one type of cancer counts?

I had in mind a cure for every type of cancer. I remembered an SMBC comic saying "'a cure for cancer' is like 'a cure for virus'" and I thought "that's a good idea, I'll add that to the list too". But a cure for a sufficiently large amount of them might suffice.

High-fidelity brain-computer interface

Sorry to be a pain, but... how high a fidelity? We already have brain-computer interfaces that are used to control robotic arms, I believe there are even ones used to give blind people sight.

@DavidFWatson Normalize asking for further specification. No pain, no gain.

@NcyRocks any update?

Only four months late! To be honest, I'm not sure. Just higher than current.

(And I agree with Gaz; don't apologise for asking for clarification!)

Fusion energy
bought Ṁ10 Fusion energy YES

Can you be more specific on this? Strictly speaking there exist operational fusion reactors. There have even been net-positive fusion reactors (for very short periods though). What's the precise requirement?

@DavidFWatson also nuclear weapons and the sun use fusion energy

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules