Will at least 20% of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034? | Manifold

Will at least 20% of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

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Capturing the chance of democratic backsliding, but with a significantly lower bar than a majority.

Exact same resolution criteria as @chrisjbillington's market, but resolves YES if in any release of The Economist Democracy Index up to and including the 2033 release (likely to be published in early 2034), 20% or more of the listed countries are no longer listed as democracies, being listed instead either as a "hybrid" or "authoritarian" regimes.

If there is any dispute on the resolution I will defer to @chrisjbillington if he's willing, or use my best interpretation of his criteria if he is not available.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

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Yes but Economist Democracy index probably will not reflect it.

Year 1 (out of 11) complete: 0 out of 30 Western democracies have become non-democratic. The closest continues to be Croatia, which received a score of 6.50 for the fourth year in a row, and Hungary, which rose from 6.64 to 6.72. Ten more years remain until this bet concludes.

They already aren't democracies lmao. Policy is dictated by capital and the opinion of the majority has little to no effect on policy. The Economist will definitely not report this information though.

Are at least 20% of them still de facto democratic today? Could could we tell if they weren't?

@NickAllen Resolves via the Economist Democracy index as the description specifies, for more info see the linked market.

@DanMan314 Economist Democracy index is probably very biased.

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