Will at least 20% of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034? | Manifold

Will at least 20% of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Plus

44

Ṁ3136

2034

21%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Capturing the chance of democratic backsliding, but with a significantly lower bar than a majority.

Exact same resolution criteria as @chrisjbillington's market, but resolves YES if in any release of The Economist Democracy Index up to and including the 2033 release (likely to be published in early 2034), 20% or more of the listed countries are no longer listed as democracies, being listed instead either as a "hybrid" or "authoritarian" regimes.

If there is any dispute on the resolution I will defer to @chrisjbillington if he's willing, or use my best interpretation of his criteria if he is not available.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Yes but Economist Democracy index probably will not reflect it.

Year 1 (out of 11) complete: 0 out of 30 Western democracies have become non-democratic. The closest continues to be Croatia, which received a score of 6.50 for the fourth year in a row, and Hungary, which rose from 6.64 to 6.72. Ten more years remain until this bet concludes.

They already aren't democracies lmao. Policy is dictated by capital and the opinion of the majority has little to no effect on policy. The Economist will definitely not report this information though.

Are at least 20% of them still de facto democratic today? Could could we tell if they weren't?

@NickAllen Resolves via the Economist Democracy index as the description specifies, for more info see the linked market.

@DanMan314 Economist Democracy index is probably very biased.

Related questions

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Will any of the following Western countries abandon democracy by 2030?

Will the world be more democratic in 2045?

Will any of the following Western countries' legislatures be majority controlled by explicitly fascist or communist political parties before 2030?

Will any of the following Western countries have a civil war by 2030?

Will democracy around the world continue to decline in 2024, according to Freedom House?

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Will half of the world’s population or more live in democracies before 2030?

Will the democracy score for the United States significantly decrease by the end of 2025?

Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?

Related questions

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Will democracy around the world continue to decline in 2024, according to Freedom House?

Will any of the following Western countries abandon democracy by 2030?

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Will the world be more democratic in 2045?

Will half of the world’s population or more live in democracies before 2030?

Will any of the following Western countries' legislatures be majority controlled by explicitly fascist or communist political parties before 2030?

Will the democracy score for the United States significantly decrease by the end of 2025?

Will any of the following Western countries have a civil war by 2030?

Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules