Who will be the next big Sam on Manifold?
Basic
8
Ṁ4382027
30%
No one by close date
21%
12%
Samuel Alito
10%
Sam Harris
7%
Sam Jacobs (TIME)
6%
Sam Reich
4%
Samuel Lim (Binance)
4%
Sam Bowman (NYU/Anthropic)
2%
Sam Trabucco
2%
Samuel L. Jackson
2%
Sam Elliott
Resolves to any public person whose first name is Sam, Samuel or Sammy and who is the main subject of at least one market with strictly more than 999 unique traders by close date. Resolves to whoever meets the condition first.
Will not resolve to Sam Altman or Sam Bankman-Fried. Markets made before this one do not count.
A public person is anyone who meets at least one of the following conditions:
has an active, stable Wikipedia page
has at least 100,000 followers on one of several social media websites (X, Instagram, Threads, LinkedIn)
holds or has held a public office
has a h-index of at least 30
has won a Nobel Prize
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