Will any question in the next Philpapers survey get at least 90% agreement?
Plus
10
Ṁ3472031
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Agreement = 'accept' and 'lean toward' combined.
The Philpapers survey tracks the beliefs of professional philosophers in the English-speaking world (broadly construed) on a range of questions. So far, no position has received more than about 80% support except for certain specific options, e.g. human beings are conscious, which I will disregard. Only positions that did not receive >= 90% agreement in previous surveys will count.
The last survey was in 2020. The previous one, which was the first, was in 2009. I don't know when the next survey will take place, but David Chalmers says it would be reasonable to expect it around 2030 (https://twitter.com/davidchalmers42/status/1637813483545690112?s=20).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?
57% chance
Will the percentage of philosophers identifying as religious in the next PhilPapers Survey decrease?
82% chance
Will "Critical review of Christiano's disagreements..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
27% chance
Will "Attitudes about Applied Rationality" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
43% chance
Will Paul Christiano's "Where I agree and disagree with Eliezer" post still be the most upvoted post on LessWrong at the beginning of 2025?
7% chance
Will "Meta Questions about Metaphilosophy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will "How much do you believe your results?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
90% chance
Will "Tips for Empirical Alignment Research" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
24% chance
Will "2023 Unofficial LessWrong Census/Survey" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
9% chance
Will "A mostly critical review of infra-Bayesianism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
12% chance