This is a much weaker version of the statement in question, mainly aimed at testing if Musk's persecution complex holds any water whatsoever.
An exhaustive list of events I would consider "particularly bad" for the sake of this market includes:
-Elon Musk is arrested.
-Musk dies, or is diagnosed with a terminal illness.
-There is a serious assassination attempt on Musk.
-There is a successful kidnapping attempt on Musk.
-Musk has a net worth less than $50 billion.
-SpaceX, Tesla, or Twitter is banned, shut down, or prevented from operating in the U.S. by the U.S. government.
I may add items to this list in the first week this market is open based on comments. This market will be N/A'd if Harris is not elected president in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. I will not bet on this market.
As with the other market, the biggest variable here is Musk's own behavior, not anything the Harris administration is likely to do to politically target him. For example, the most likely way he gets arrested is by committing an ordinary crime. Most instances of arrest, even arrest of famous people, are not political persecution.
Will boost to basic if people show interest in this market