I will only resolve YES answers created by order of magnitude (edit: OR <10K, which includes negative numbers)
EG: 10K-100K, 100K-1M, 1M-10M, 10M-100M, etc.
Please do not add answers that deviate from this format.
I will not count effects that route through social effects of climate change. EG I will not count "climate-change related mass immigration increases social instability which is partially responsible for a war in which people die".
I will count effects like "climate change caused high temperatures in a region which caused people to be more likely to die from sickness."
If climate change seems to be reducing the number of deaths somehow in a way that doesn't route through social effects, I will factor that into my estimate.
I will only trade small amounts of mana in this market to create answers.
I would greatly appreciate operationalization improvement feedback/questions about my operationalization.
Estimate starts at Jan 1, 2000.
1,000
3.00Is this about net or gross deaths? Third paragraph from the bottom suggests net. In that case, negative numbers don't seem super improbable (e.g. fig 3 of https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24487-w ), but I wouldn't know how to add them without deviating from the format.
@StevenK I want to count lives saved! EG if "fewer people died from extreme cold" dominates the estimate of number of human deaths, I want my estimate to be negative.
@NoaNabeshima Another question: This market probably isn't about all climate change since prehistorical times, right? Is there an implicit "since 1900" or "since 2000", for example?
@StevenK @evergreenemily @CromlynGames @ShadowyZephyr @HenriThunberg
Any starting date you were implicitly using when trading on this market?
@NoaNabeshima Nothing well-defined, maybe vaguely like 2000, but I didn't spend much mana here and I endorse choosing a starting date that you think works well with the question.
@NoaNabeshima Good question - I think I was also implicitly thinking around 2000. Seems easier to measure.
Total change in temperature deaths since 2000 seems to be a wash, or maybe a slight decrease, but there were 475,000 deaths because of natural disasters between 2000 and 2020, some percentage of which are caused by climate change.
Would stuff like "climate change caused a crop failure here, causing mass starvation" or "climate change caused hurricanes to become more frequent and severe, leading to X hurricane-related deaths in the U.S. between 2020 and 2050" count for the purposes of this market? They seem direct enough, but I wanna be sure.