Conditional on at least 3 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive? | Manifold

Conditional on at least 3 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?

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The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it. The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.

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Although Centigrade is customary it might be good to state the scale.

3 degrees of warming since what baseline date?

predicts YES

@GooglyEyes Whatever date people usually use when talking about these things

predicts NO

@IsaacKing So preindustrial temperatures?

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