Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030? | Manifold

Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?

Nuclear Nuclear Risk

Mini

8

Ṁ258

2031

13%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This question will resolve YES if a nuclear disaster occurs by end of year 2030 that scores a seven on the International Nuclear Event Scale. If a disaster occurs near the resolution date that could plausibly resolve YES, I will extend trading until a INES score is given.

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Will a private company demonstrate nuclear fusion net gain (>1.0 energy out vs energy in) before 12/31/2025?

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