Will a nuclear power incident cause 25 deaths (or equivalent) before 2030? | Manifold

Will a nuclear power incident cause 25 deaths (or equivalent) before 2030?

Plus

19

Ṁ1047

2030

13%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The accident must occur in one of USA, France, South Korea, Canada, UK. If I estimate 25 deaths, 1000 QALY-loss, or more were caused then this resolves YES else NO. QALY loss includes an estimate of future conditions resulting from radiation exposure caused by the incident.

These deaths may result from any single incident. The incident may involve any part of the nuclear power supply chain (enrichment, transportation, plant operation, waste storage...). If some part of the supply chain is breached, and used by a malicious actor thereby causing death this also counts. Nuclear weapons used by countries' military do not count.

This question is intended to broadly cover all problems arising from nuclear power.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Technology

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

The proliferation of nuclear power has been very thoroughly prevented, and existing power stations are under heavy scrutiny. There's a small chance, through war, activism, or terrorism, that something might happen, but in this timeframe I find it unlikely.

Related questions

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

+29% 1d36% chance

Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2030?

Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030

Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?

Will there be a nuclear close call or accidental detonation before 2030?

Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2050?

Will nuclear weapons cause at least [1, 1000, 100000] deaths in 2025?

Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 5, 6, or 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?

Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040?

Will a nuclear weapon detonation cause at least 1 fatality, by end of 2024?

Related questions

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2050?

Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2030?

Will nuclear weapons cause at least [1, 1000, 100000] deaths in 2025?

Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030

Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 5, 6, or 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?

Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?

Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040?

Will there be a nuclear close call or accidental detonation before 2030?

Will a nuclear weapon detonation cause at least 1 fatality, by end of 2024?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules