Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030? | Manifold

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

Nuclear Risk Existential Risk

Basic

52

Ṁ14k

2030

12%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves NO if humanity is still around in 2030. Otherwise, we just have to hope that who/whatever is left resolves it correctly.

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This is silly, because it cannot resolve to yes, you will not be alive to resolve it

bought Ṁ50 NO

People can vote yes to express their fears, and if yes gets high enough, you can sell in order to enjoy your mana in what remains of your life

https://outsidetheasylum.blog/prediction-markets-are-not-polls/

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