State pension ages have been pushed back before. With the success of auto-opt-in private pensions, will future governments be tempted to push the age back again, or to abolish them entirely?
The current state pension age is capped at 68 years old. This question assumes two millennials, one born 1st January 1981, and another born 31st December 1996. At what age will these two extreme millennials get their state pension? If they both retire under the same age bracket, this market will resolve 100% to that answer, if they retire under two separate answers then I will resolve equally between each correct answer.
This market resolves to "There will be no state pension for millennials" if the state pension is abolished, or if it is replaced by a non-age-gated social security such as unemployment benefits or a universal basic income. If the state pension is rebranded but otherwise continues to provide payment from taxes to older individuals, this market will continue and reflect the rebranded service. If it becomes means-tested (i.e. not universally available for retirees) then this will split the resolution equally between any accurate ages for the state pension, and "there will be no state pension for millennials".
Closure date is set to 15 years before the younger Extreme Millennial will retire, which is likely the latest date that pension legislation affecting millennials would be brought into law. This could be brought forward e.g. if pension legislation was brought earlier that could reasonably be expected to stay in place for both Extreme Millennials.
This is about the US rather than UK but it’s fascinating how the headline figure matches up here. https://creditnews.com/economy/millennials-are-more-retirement-ready-than-their-parents-vanguard/
Interesting that in early betting, nobody seems to think that a coming AI revolution will lead to us working less and retiring earlier.
Manifold needs some kind of market Venn diagram feature so I can see how many of the “there will be no state pension” buyers overlap with “AI will kill us all before market closure” type markets. No state pension because the state can’t afford it, or because we’ll all be dead?
@Noit rational players pretend that society will still exists, because mana has no value if we're all dead.
so people betting on "no pension" either aren't betting rationally (didn't realize they are supposed to ignore doomsday probability mass) or think the state can't afford it
@Noit If we get AI, we probably will also achieve immortality and get universal basic income (UBI) or something similar. So, I see AI as less likely to lead to early retirement.
@Birger Hopefully! I slightly regret not splitting No Pension into No Pension - UBI replacement and No Pension - Parents Get Nothing, I’d love to know what the split is.
@wadimiusz No. To expand on why (which I didn’t do in the question): this market is in part to help those of us impacted with our financial planning.
If a UBI is introduced that replaces the state pension, we will not have a “I’ll have my pension in the future” factor to consider in retirement planning. That we’d be getting UBI instead would be an entirely different factor in the planning..