Will there be two UK General Elections in rapid (<2 year) succession?
Basic
11
Ṁ3502026
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
According to this article, the Conservatives are expecting the actual results of the next election to be much closer than polling currently suggests, forcing another election soon afterwards, using 1950/51 and 1974 as their template.
The question is, will there be under two years between the first General Election held since 2019, and the first General Election to follow that election?
This question resolves YES if the next but one general election is held before the second anniversary of the election to be held this year. E.g. if the coming election is held on 31st October 2024, this question resolves YES if we have another election before or on 30th October 2026, and NO if the next election is held later than that.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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