When will the next person celebrate 120s birthday?
12
Ṁ485
2036
48%
In 2028 or earlier
70%
In 2029 or earlier
79%
In 2030 or earlier
79%
In 2031 or earlier
79%
In 2032 or earlier
82%
In 2033 or earlier
84%
In 2034 or earlier

The oldest person in history was Jeanne Calment, who lived to be 122 year old, though there is some controversy regarding her real age. The second oldest person lived to be just 119, meaning that we aren't completely sure whether anyone lived to be 120 years old.

The oldest person alive as of 2024-03-04 just celebrated her 117s birthday, so the earliest anyone can reach 120 years old is exactly 3 years from now, in 2027.

The market will resolve positively as soon as the List of the verified oldest people Wikipedia page and similar sources list a person who is at least 120 years old and is alive or died after this question has been created.

In the case of a controversy regarding the age of the oldest living person (for example if different reputable sources give different results), I'll delay the resolution in case it becomes clear. If the resolution is still unclear after some time, I might resolve one or more of the answers as N/A.

I will be resolving the answers to NO as soon as the oldest person on the List of oldest living people can't possibly live to 120 in the respective time period. I.e. as soon as nobody is left who was born in the year 1908 or earlier, the answer "In 2028 or earlier" can be resolved as NO.

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The only remaining person who was born in 1907 just died, so 2027 is no longer possible. Resolving 2027 to NO.

At the moment there are two 116-year old people born in 1908 which could resolve 2028 as YES if they live for 4 more years.

Just checked and Maria Branyas is still alive at 117 and is the only person who can reach 120 y.o. in 2027. Two more people could reach the age of 120 in 2028.

I'm not betting on my own markets, but I'm just going to say, the current probabilities look crazy high. There's just one person alive who was born in 1907 and she has to live 3 more years for the market to resolve as YES in 2027.