PLEASE READ ALL FOLLOWING CAVEATS BEFORE BETTING ON THIS MARKET. BY BETTING ON THIS MARKET, YOU AGREE TO THE TERMS "AS-IS" AND ASSENT TO ANY EVENT OUTCOMES NOT ADDRESSED BY THESE TERMS AS BEING DECIDED ACCORDING TO MY PERSONAL DISCRETION.
Candidacy must have been at least informally concluded by 11:59PM on Friday, July 5th (so, he could drop out any time on that day).
Overly-literal interpretations of "drop out" are discouraged. "I'm no longer going to run for the presidency this fall" / "I am releasing my delegates for the convention" / etc. are all valid.
Additionally, any reporting within ~one week of closing date that demonstrates Joe Biden to have made this decision in any capacity by EOD Friday is valid and resolves this question to "yes." (For example, a quote from his wife Dr. Jill Biden being discussed in the news the following week: "Well, Joe told me on Friday night that he just didn't think he had it in him after all, and it was from that conversation that we made this decision." )
Note how this allows the event to have "occurred" without having been announced or formalized.
Formal occurrence in the form of a delegate release or some sort of public press announcement must have occurred by 11:59 PM on Friday, July 12th.
Note when this question closes and when the question criteria must have been satisfied in order for this to resolve to "yes." Furthermore, the question may not resolve until next Sunday, July 14th.
July 14th is probably both the earliest and latest date this question will resolve to "no."
The question may resolve to "yes" even before the closing date or even before July 5th, but not before I am satisfied by how factually verifiable all the reporting on the event is. ("Some guy on Twitter said X" does not count.)
Please DM me if you come across credible news reporting about this happening so I can resolve ASAP, I'll definitely check at least once per day, but more often than that is not guaranteed.
If you have any questions or need clarifications about definitions/process with this market, feel free to ask them in the comments. I may respond if your words are polite, specific, and relevant enough to merit additional time & effort on my part.
Thank you for your interest in this market, and happy betting.
1,000
1.00We still got a week or so per description, e.g., Biden could drop out next week and indicate that he decided yesterday (Friday) afternoon (which would resolve YES).
Iβm very much uninterested about hearing about βbest practicesβ when Manifold admins allowed a large market creator to do precisely what you describe in a way that completely opposed the obvious original intent of the market question after the predicted event happened in a way inconvenient for the creator.
Given the total tomfoolery displayed by Manifold admins and moderators during that whole episode at the end of last year, itβs clear that no one with a badge next to their name has any real idea about what does or doesnβt make sense on this platform except for perhaps Joshua.
Best practices dictate that I stick to the original conditions as they were presented to bettors before market close. Itβs the height of fraud to change the terms after the fact, and I wonβt be persuaded otherwise.
Current probability is far too low; check out the article below (Gift NYT):