Will a utility-scale solar PPA be made for <$10/MWh by the end of 2026?

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Will any credible source report a purchase power agreement (PPA) of <$10/MWh for a >5 MW solar energy installation?

The lowest currently reported price I am aware of is ~$20/MWh.

PPAs specified as <5 years in duration will not count for this market to resolve. A PPA of unspecified duration will be assumed sufficient for resolution, since PPAs are typically for terms of >10 years.

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https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/02/26/masdar-reaches-financial-close-for-1-8-gw-of-solar/

16$/MWh

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/02/20/colombia-assigns-4-4-gw-of-solar-for-0-0182-kwh-in-latest-energy-auction/ 18$

predicts YES

https://taiyangnews.info/2-gw-al-dhafra-solar-plant-commissioned-in-uae/ ($0.0132)/kWh.

bought Ṁ100 YES from 77% to 80%

predicts YES

@figo At this rate we'll be there before 2025!

predicts YES

@Mqrius Indeed, quite exciting times for solar! PPAs sometimes hide very favorable funding conditions (or taxes, real estate...) but the market is about PPAs, not the true cost of solar.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/11/08/saudi-consortium-signs-25-year-ppa-for-1-1-gw-of-solar/ Getting closer

Consortium signs 25-year PPA for 1.1 GW of solar capacity in Saudi Arabia

Masdar, EDF Renewables and Nesma Company have signed a 25-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Saudi Power Procurement Co. (SPPC) to develop the 1.1 GW Al Henakiyah Solar Project in Saudi Arabia.

Added M250 Subsidy

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/08/24/serbias-first-renewables-auction-attracts-lowest-solar-bid-of-e0-08865-kwh/

YES?

Serbia’s first renewables auction draws lowest solar bid of €0.08865/kWh

The lowest solar bid in Serbia's inaugural renewable energy auction was €0.08865 ($0.096)/kWh. The exercise is planned to allocate 50 MW of solar and 400 MW of wind power.

@figo If I read things right this bid hasn't been accepted yet, so maybe it doesn't count as a purchase agreement yet. But it looks hopeful to me.

predicts YES

Actually isn't this 88 euros per MWh? As in, way more than 10?

@Mqrius Oops indeed.

For what duration? Do transient spikes like like when the price of oil went negative count?

@JonathanRay As I understand it, PPAs are typically for terms of >10 years. For this market I'll say any power purchase agreement of >=5 years counts. If a source doesn't list the length of the PPA, we'll default to assuming it counts. But if something explicitly mentions something like a 1 year PPA, that won't be sufficient for resolution.