Will Turkey will default on its debt by the end of 2024?

Turkey’s economy has been struggling in recent years. Many factors make a default likely:
- President Erdogan’s policy of lowering interest rates in spite of rising inflation has led to a sharp decline in the value of the Turkish lira.
- Turkey’s foreign currency reserves have also been falling.
- The Turkish stock market has been performing poorly as well.
- Erdogan was re-elected in 2023 and has been in power since 2003.
- According to Bloomberg, five-year credit-default swaps, a measure of Turkey’s debt risk, remain near a 16-month high.
- Inflation is also high at 42.5% (with unofficial sources reporting higher rates of 60-100%).

However, Erdogan has seemed to miraculously avoid economic disaster so far. Additionally, Turkish debt is relatively low, at only ~38% of GDP. The Turkish government has never previously defaulted.

This question will resolve "Yes" immediately if Turkey fails to make any on-time payments on any government bonds by the end of 2024. Otherwise, this question will resolve "No" at the end of 2024.