Will Jan Leike still be leading Superalignment in 4 years? | Manifold

Will Jan Leike still be leading Superalignment in 4 years?

23

1kṀ6653

2027

1%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Ilya Sutskever (cofounder and Chief Scientist of OpenAI) has made this his core research focus, and will be co-leading the team with Jan Leike (Head of Alignment).

Resolves NO if a reputable source says that Jan Leike is no longer leading Superalignment.

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At OAI specifically?

@shankypanky The question is clearly referring to the OpenAI Superalignment team. Even if he led a team called Superalignment at Anthropic, it shouldn't count.

I didn't realise this was a FUH market

@shankypanky lol me neither.

bought Ṁ944 NO

Resolves NO, he left:

https://x.com/janleike/status/1791498174659715494

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/17/openai-superalignment-sutskever-leike.html

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Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

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Will I think that alignment is no longer "preparadigmatic" by the start of 2026?

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Related questions

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

Will xAI significantly rework their alignment plan by the start of 2026?

Will Superalignment succeed, according to a majority of Eliezer, Nate, Paul, John, David.

Will I think that alignment is no longer "preparadigmatic" by the start of 2026?

Will there be more alignmentforum posts from 2025 than 2024?

Will a major AI alignment office (eg Constellation/Lightcone/HAIST) give out free piksters to alignment ppl by EOY 2027?

Will I have a career as an alignment researcher by the end of 2024?

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

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