Updating this at the moment, since several countries have degraded relations in the last few months.

How mad would people be if I moved the end date to 2040? What about 2030? Too much?

@Panfilo I changed it to 2040. Feel free to downvote me in 16 years.

I have to confess I had not heard of this country before ... you know something new everyday

Added Bolivia based on the news of their unilateral breaking of ties. Note that Turkey has not been added yet.

Governed by democratic republic, in theory, but had military coups in 2012 and 2022. Too occupied by domestic instability to do much else.

Conditional on restoring some rights to Palestinians. Governed by a mostly democratic presidential republic.

@oh also chock full of foreign military bases

Inconsistent. Began talks with Israel last year. Condemns Israel for terrorism with some regularity and advocates for an independent Palestine.

Governed by constitutional monarchy with decades of antisemitic & anti-Zionist prime ministers. Islam is the official religion.

Very inconsistent. Governed by highly unstable democracy. Recently held unpopular (and illegal!) secret meetings with Israel.

Very inconsistent. Israel considers them an enemy state. Both have expressed interest in normalization in the last few years. Governed by a mostly-democratic parliamentary republic.

Firmly hostile recognizing Israel. Fought in Arab-Israeli wars for decades. Governed by autocracy.

Repeatedly has stated for decades that it will never recognize Israel. Fought against Israel on numerous occasions since 1948. Governed by unstable parliamentary republic with un-democratic elections.

Been fighting Israel mostly by proxy, though sometimes directly, since 1985. Develops nukes to fight Iran. Governed by 84 y/o Ali Khamenei since the 80s. Has un-democratic elections and strong theocracy.

Conditional on independent Palestine, though indications otherwise. Trades with Israel.

Inconsistent attitudes towards Israel. Most recently, been siding with Hamas and Arab countries. Governed by military dictatorship with un-democratic elections.

Has been participating in talks with Israel for at least several years. Trades with Israel.

Conditional on independent Palestine. Governed by a relatively stable monarchic dictatorship. Has been under martial law since the 60s.

Conditional on independent Palestine, though indications otherwise. Relations have been steadily improving over time.

Conditional on independent Palestine. Has become increasingly hostile over last couple of decades.

Taliban says unequivocal no. How likely is it that they will remain in power until 2050? How likely is it that the next ruler will want to recognize Israel?

Increasingly U.S. ally, in a polarized world it will have ties with Israel

@0482 The confidence in this despite recent setbacks is the most interesting part of the market so far, and I don't think I disagree.

I like this market but generally is tying up money in a super long term market worth it? I'm open to hearing pros/cons

@PlainBG Many people just throw in 5 Mana if they don't expect a market to move for a long time, BUT since this has so many options and the subject is so volatile, it could suddenly be really active for one or two specific countries just based on shifts in geopolitics. Keep in mind, if North Korea recognizes Israel tomorrow on a whim, that specific option resolves Yes tomorrow (unlike in linked outcome markets).