@mods Market should close end of July 2026 for World Cup

New market on who will replace him:

Or you can just go to this existing market?

Thanks! I didn't find it in my search.

@mods This market needs to be unresolved.

I agree. But should it open or just reresolve to the right thing?

Open, it should have never been resolved in the first place.

Done. It was a provisional resolution and since the news broke that he was fired it should be reopened (author's comments a year ago agree)

Ok, but the liquidity in this market is absolutely ridiculously tiny/broken, so there's no point trading lol. Closing since being able to trade only 1 mana at a time is worse than being open.

Should not be resolved yet. If it was "Who will be chosen for the 2026 job in 2023", then it should be phrased like this.

Clear misresolution in my book, @PatMyron

@howtodowtle Also what if the US don't qualify and don't play in the World Cup? Then it should resolve N/A imo.

@howtodowtle the US already qualified since they're hosting

I think this market should remain open until the World Cup.

@Charlie i think preliminary resolution is okay, given near certainty. You can reresolve if it comes to that, but this frees up mana earlier and makes the markets like it more attractive to bet on

@Fedor Whose definition of 'near certainty' are we going off of? I thought the whole point of Manifold was that people have different definitions of that. For me it makes markets like these less attractive to bet on because I now have no idea when they will resolve. In my experience on Manifold, it is not general practice to resolve markets early with the justification that it frees up mana. I agree that being able to reresolve markets makes this less of a risk, but that requires keeping track of what markets were prematurely resolved.

It's one market and not a big deal, but I felt the need to register that this resolution timing felt notably strange.

If anything happens leading up to the world cup that prevents him from coaching, will this market be re-resolved?

@Predictor yes

@mods