How far will the US get in the 2026 world cup

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Ṁ2164

2026

Finals

Semi finals

30%

Quarter finals

33%

Round of 16

25%

Preliminaries

1.5%

Won't make it

Resolves to the highest level the US makes it to. Note that this is agnostic between winner/second place and third/fourth places.

Policy if the rules are changed: "preliminaries" refers to the round containing 32 teams (or, if there is no such round - say if group stage filters from 48 to 16 - the last round in the cup with more than 16 teams), and "won't make it" refers to failing to reach this round. If the 2026 cup adds a round (so that it has 64 teams overall), losing on that round could still count as "not making it".

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#2026 FIFA World Cup

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What if there is a "Round of 32" after the group stage and before the Round of 16? (Which seems likely given the increased number of participants.)

@amoebus in case of a change of rules, the round of 32 would count as the preliminaries (and the group stage would count as not making it).

@ShakedKoplewitz Thanks for clarifying. (Note that it's already confirmed that there will be 48 teams, and the current plan is to 'add a round', though the details of what will happen before the Round of 16 are still subject to change.)

I think it's been decided ever since they increased the number of teams that there will be 16 groups of 3, with the top 2 advancing to the round of 32.

Qualifying is already being played, so there will absolutely not be any number of teams other than 48.

By "preliminaries" do you mean the group stage?

@StevenK yeah that

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