Will more than 40 teams participate in the first round of the AI Forecasting Benchmark Series?
4
Ṁ102Jul 8
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will count each user/bot/team that is eligible for prize money. They must participate in 80% of questions to count.
The live announcement at Manifest said that prize money would be allocated to several categories with different scoring rules. If this turns out to be accurate, a bot must achieve 80% coverage in at least one prize-earning category to count. Its overall coverage may be lower.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?
39% chance
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
19% chance
In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?
17% chance
How many billion dollar AI training runs will occur in 2024?
Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2025?
28% chance
Will my team win the main round of the OPTIC London forecasting competition?
32% chance
Will there be an AI Winter between 2022 and 2026?
29% chance
Will the "AI Longbets Turing Test by 2029" market go above 80% by EOY 2026?
57% chance
Will an AI SWE model score higher than 50% on SWE-bench in 2024?
20% chance
Are we about to hit another AI winter?
11% chance