Prophetic AI (https://propheticai.co/) is a new company claiming to have developed "Morpheus-1," a multi-modal generative ultrasonic transformer designed to induce and stabilize lucid dreams through "The Halo," a non-invasive neural device. Beta testing is set to begin in Spring 2024. Twitter account with regular updates: https://twitter.com/PropheticAI
This will resolve as YES if:
An official scientific study or source demonstrates that "The Halo" can induce lucid dreaming with at least a 25% success rate in the general population, resulting in one or more lucid dreams per night on average, before the end of 2024 (*).
The device does not require users to have prior lucid dreaming training or experience. The success rate must be achieved solely through the use of The Halo, including dream recollection, with the average user remembering one or more lucid dreams 25% of the times the device is used during a standard night.
"The Halo" must work for most people (the average user) in most circumstances, even if it does not work for certain individuals or under specific conditions.
The induction of lucid dreams does not need to be stable/long-lasting, as long as it is proven to be induced by The Halo.
The resolution applies even if the company, device, or model name changes, or if the AI model/software undergoes modifications, as long as it is an official release.
This will resolve as NO if:
The conditions mentioned above are not met.
The company ceases operations, dissolves, or is proven to be a scam.
The Halo's release is delayed beyond 2024.
The first consumer-available version of "The Halo" to the general public (excluding beta testing) requires new hardware that has not met the YES criteria above.
An official scientific study or source shows that "The Halo" does not work, is a placebo effect, or has less than a 25% success rate for the average user during a standard night's sleep.
(*) Conditional Deadline Extension: If by the end of 2024, no scientific study has been published proving the effectiveness of "The Halo", but there is significant media and user evidence suggesting it works, the deadline for validation will be extended to the end of 2025 at maximum. This adjustment allows time for scientific proof to emerge, ensuring a fair assessment of "The Halo's" capabilities and that its true success rate is equal to or greater than 25%.
1,000
3.00Based on the YES criteria, even if the device were obviously effective, the market is likely to resolve NO just based on the average person not having good enough dream recall to meet the criteria. Research (Belicki, 1986) has found that most people only remember 1-2 dreams per week. If the device successfully induced lucid dreams 80% of the time, this might still fail to resolve YES on those grounds.
@NBAP
Most people don't remember their dreams and don't make an effort to do so. However, if the device actually works, it will be noticed and attract scientific interest. Consider that most individuals likely to purchase the device first have an interest in lucid dreaming and some experience with it. These individuals would have much better dream recall than the average person and would report if the device offers any form of help with lucid dreaming. Later, in 2024, or in 2025 if the Conditional Deadline Extension of the market is utilized based on significant user evidence that it works, any scientific study will provide the actual, real results and success rate of the device (taking into account the dream recall and placebo effects of the experiment subjects, control groups, and so on).
You're right; the gap between the product's release and the publication of any scientific studies may extend beyond 2024. I will update the description to include a conditional deadline extension. Therefore, if "The Halo" is reported by media and most users to work to some extent, but there are no studies available at that time, the deadline will be extended to the end of 2025, pending further research.