Will Trump actually establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in his first year?
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16
Ṁ616
Feb 1
37%
chance

Context:

Resolution Criteria:

  • Resolves YES if:

    1. Donald Trump is elected president in November 2024, AND

    2. Within 1 year of his inauguration, his administration: signs an executive order, or passes legislation, or otherwise officially establishes a US strategic reserve of Bitcoin or other crypto

    3. Actual crypto must be acquired and held for reserve purposes.

  • Resolves NO if:

    1. Trump is elected, but the above conditions are not met within 1 year of inauguration.

  • Resolves N/A if:

    1. Donald Trump is not elected president in November 2024.

Notes:

  • The total amount of cryptocurrency in the reserve does not affect the resolution.

  • Merely starting the legal process is not sufficient for a YES resolution; the reserve must be actually established and holding Bitcoin or other crypto.

  • If the reserve holds Ethereum or other currencies, instead of Bitcoin, this would still resolve as YES. CBDC does not count for YES resolution.

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Depends. What’s in it for him? He could front run the reserve or at least SELL the reserve info to “campaign donors”, for a return cut.

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