Will Trump reduce the trade deficit at all in his first year?
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57%
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Resolves YES if the US trade deficit (seasonally adjusted) for 2025 is less than the US trade deficit for 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.
The data source for this question will be the US Census's monthly report on international trade, seen here: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf. Specifically, we will take the negation of the total trade balance from Part A, Exhibit 1.
See here for the schedule of their releases: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/schedule.html
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