I definitely think Begich can win this.

I previously thought that she was the Condorcet winner of her race, but actually, it turns out Begich was. So the only reason she won was that Palin was a spoiler for Begich and too polarizing herself to beat Peltola. So, assuming Palin doesn't run again next year, this suggests that another Republican is likely to beat her. Of course, she also has an incumbency advantage now and seems to be popular in the state despite being a Democrat, so maybe she'll be able to pull through.

(The fact sheet here shows that Begich was the Condorcet winner. I've linked to the time in the video where the sheet was pulled up):

https://www.youtube.com/live/O-dzK3YIAf8?si=eYuMBmGLWMqo4Sd5&t=9521

Maybe We Were Wrong About Ranked Choice Voting

Ranked choice voting, as it turns out, has lots of problems, as we are seeing as it is being used more and more in the real world. Mr. Beat joins a panel fro...