In 2020, Trump's margin in Iowa was 8.20%, and in Ohio it was 8.03%. These states both seem to have similar voting behavior, being former swing states that have moved into the Republican column. However, Manifold's U.S. elections tab currently thinks Iowa is much more safe for the GOP than Ohio, possibly indicating that people think Ohio will vote further to the left than Iowa, rather than having almost the exact same margin like it did in 2020.

This market resolves YES if the (Republican - Democrat) margin in Iowa is within 1% of that in Ohio in the 2024 POTUS general election.

See also: /PlasmaBallin/ohiowa-showdown-will-ohio-be-closer