Will the popular vote margin be at least 5% in 2024? | Manifold

Will the popular vote margin be at least 5% in 2024?

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Will the winner of the popular vote for U.S. president win by at least 5%?

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Election margins

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Given that Trump only won the Rust Belt swing states by 1 or 2 points, there's no way the PV margin is going to be big. Trump+5 would mean the EC bias was more than 3 points in his favor.

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