Will there be more highly competitive states in 2024 than 2020?
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Ṁ1773resolved Nov 22
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For the purposes of this market, I will define a "highly competitive state" as any state where the final vote margin in the presidential general election is <5%. So in 2020, there were eight highly competitive states (Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, and Florida). If there are nine or more in 2024, this market resolves YES, and otherwise it resolves NO. This market only counts the states, so if one of the Congressional districts with its own electoral votes ends up being highly competitive, it won't count towards the total.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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There were once again exactly 8: WI, MI, PA, GA, NC, NV, NH, MN. It was extremely close - Virginia was only 0.2% away from being highly competitive.
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