Will an implantable device to treat tinnitus be available anywhere in the world before 2027?
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23
Ṁ802
2027
16%
chance

Following Musk's 4/24/2023 promise

Note: this market resolves yes even if the device doesn't come from Neuralink, or doesn't use the same kind of tech at all.

May 23, 5:16pm: Clarifying that the market resolves Yes even if the device only treats some types of tinnitus: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tinnitus#Types

No efficacy minimum, only the requirement that in at least 1 country, the device is approved and available to the public. Please tell me if you can think of possible edge cases

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4 years from first study submission (2018) to results (2022) per clinicaltrials.gov

Does anybody know what’s been happening since then. Device approval submission at fda?

Note as described for this clinical trial, the device is external. If it were Only bringing this external device to commercial availability, I might think 5 years plausible. But since this prediction market is specifically for implantables, would expect them to require substantially additional clinical trials to prove safety and efficacy - more than 5 years.

5 years from when?
All types/cases of tinnitus, or only some cases?
@Duncan Good point Don't know much about this but I would say "some", because "all" seems too unlikely, and I want to keep it realistic
Don't know anything about this but want to stay updated!
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