How many minutes of Harry Potter 2026 series will be streamed in the US in the first year?
➕
Plus
17
Ṁ1081
2027
89%
>5bn
87%
>8bn
79%
>10bn
70%
>16bn
47%
> 20bn
29%
> 30bn

In April 2023, Warner Bros. Discovery announced the creation of the new Harry Potter TV series on Max after a long series of discussions with JK Rowling

CEO David Zaslav announced on Q4 earnings call on February 23, 2024 that Harry Potter TV series is slated to premiere in Max sometime in 2026.

This question will resolve based on either of published data by Warner Bros. Discovery or by Nielsen data released here: TOP 10 | Nielsen

See slides I prepared for the question for more info:

Image alt text:
Slide 1:

### What we know about the series

• The cast will be entirely different from the films. Casting for the new Harry Potter series

has yet to be announced

• The series will have 7 seasons developed over 10 years

• Will be a "faithful adaptation" of the best- selling books of J.K. Rowling, covering screen subplots and tertiary characters who didn't make the cut in the eight movies

• J.K. Rowling will be an executive producer on the Harry Potter TV series

### History and audience reaction

• In April 2023, Warner Bros. Discovery announced

the creation of the new Harry Potter TV series on Max

after a long series of discussions with JK Rowling

Right after, there was a backlash from audience who

were angry at JK Rowling over her comments on

gender and sex

J.K. Rowling on Twitter:

Dreadful news, which I feel duty bound to share. Activists in my

mentions are trying to organise yet another boycott of my work, this time

of the Harry Potter TV show. As forewarned is forearmed, I've taken the

precaution of laying in a large stock of champagne.

PM • Apr 21, 2023

• There was a similar backlash for the videogame

"Hogwarts Legacy" released in 2023, yet still it was

the bestselling title of that year, with more than 24

million copies sold, generating more than $1 billion in

revenue


### Potential impact factors for HP streamed minutes:

Controversy around J.K. Rowling might affect viewership negatively

Harry Potter fans seem to merely ignore JK while still being involved with the franchise

Other competing shows launching around the same time

Slide 2:

In 2023, the most watched original show on online platforms, Ted Lasso, was streamed for 16.9 billion minutes. This amounted to —500mn minutes per episode

The 10th show was not far behind, having 11.8bn minutes

The minutes per episodes varies widely in the top 10 list, with The Night Agent having the highest at 1.44bn, to Love IS Blind having the lowest at —190mn

Top 10 Original Streaming Programs

Unites States Viewers, year 2023

Shows

Ted Lasso

The Night Agent

Ginny & Georgia

Virgin River

Love IS Blind

Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan

Gabby's Dollhouse

The Mandalorian

Outer Banks

The Lincoln Lawyer

Mins viewed (Billions)

14.4

13.8

13.7

13.1

12.8

12.8

12.3

12.0

11.8

16.9

Episodes

34.0

10.0

20.0

54.0
70.0

30.0

58.0

27.0

30.0

20.0

Platform

Apple TV+

Netflix

Netflix

Netflix

Netflix

Prime Video

Netflix

Disney+

Netflix

Netflix



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How will the market resolve if the show is not released on schedule in 2026?

@RLB It will extend to 12 months after the date of release.

reposted

I think this market is still inefficient and also needs more options

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