Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2025?
Basic
14
Ṁ1446Dec 31
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves "Yes" if, at time of closure, there is an entry on the SWE-bench leaderboard (https://www.swebench.com/) with score greater or equal to 90%.
Linked Questions:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@DavidFWatson That's an excellent question. Let's explore possibilities:
This could be included in the question, i.e. what matters is only the number on the benchmark, regardless of whether it was gamed
I could wait a certain amount of time to check if no controversy emerges. Feels like one month would be safe. The question then resolves yes if one month after the deadline, I judge that there is no consensus that the number was gamed. This makes the question more informative.
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
70% chance
Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2026?
70% chance
Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027?
72% chance
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028?
Will an AI SWE model score higher than 50% on SWE-bench in 2024?
20% chance
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench assistance, by 2025?
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
62% chance
Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?
46% chance
Will an autonomous personal AI agent, capable of managing daily affairs, be available by the end of 2024?
12% chance
Will AutoGPT-style AI Agents mostly work before the end of 2024?
17% chance